What five years of permits show

INSEE publishes a quarterly index of authorised housing units. The base of 100 is Q4 2019, with the data adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. This is an index, not a unit count.

Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
2021	96.4	104.5	83.5	79.2
2022	106.7	112.0	100.5	81.0
2023	72.6	69.7	62.2	70.7
2024	72.9	61.1	62.1	61.6
2025	66.7	63.4	75.0	64.7
2026	62.1	—	—	—

After a temporary rise in 2021–2022, the index fell sharply. It stood at 62.1 in Q1 2026, 37.9% below the late-2019 base.

A more recent rolling measure is improving: 26,660 housing units were authorised in PACA during the 12 months from June 2025 to May 2026, 11.5% more than in the previous 12-month period.

Area	Authorised over 12 months	Annual change
Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur	26,660	+11.5%
Alpes-Maritimes	3,820	+2.2%
Var	5,950	+11.4%

The measures are not contradictory: the quarterly index remains low relative to 2019, while the latest 12-month flow has improved against a weak preceding period.

Why a permit is not yet a new home for sale

A permit records an administrative decision. It does not prove financing, a commercial launch, a construction start or delivery. In an interview on the new-build crisis, Pascal Boulanger explained that developers may continue filing for and extending permits to stay ready for a recovery in demand without immediately marketing the project.

A buyer needs four separate checkpoints:

planning permission and expiry of the challenge period;
commercial launch and satisfaction of financing conditions;
the actual start of works;
the contractual handover date and correction of defects.

A quarterly rise in permits therefore cannot be translated automatically into more available inventory.

Pascal Boulanger’s market view

Pascal Boulanger chairs the Fédération des Promoteurs Immobiliers (FPI). His statements represent an industry association’s position, not an independent macroeconomic forecast.

Publication	Main point
Empruntis, 6 March 2026	FPI estimates that sales to private investors fell 85% in 2025 to fewer than 2,500 per quarter; the Jeanbrun scheme took full effect on 21 February 2026, but it was too early to identify a sales reversal
BFM Business, 26 May 2026	new programme launches fell 19% and reservations 14% in Q1 2026 against an already weak prior year; the gap from a normal market was estimated at 55–60%
Décideurs, 12 June 2026	confidence remains the missing condition; the sector has lost more than one-third of its workforce, while failed commercial launches have, in Boulanger’s account, risen from about 3% to 20–23%

His outlook to 2030 depends on four conditions: buyer confidence, stable tax rules, access to land and solvent demand. For a buyer, the practical implication is that supply and delivery capacity may recover with a lag even if demand turns first.

What a VEFA deed should contain

VEFA is the purchase of a home being built or yet to be built. Service Public states that the notarised deed must describe the property and equipment, price and any revision mechanism, delivery deadline, and evidence of a financial refund or completion guarantee.

Maximum cumulative payments follow construction progress:

Stage	Maximum cumulative share of the price
foundations completed	35%
building made watertight	70%
construction completed	95%
handover with no conformity reservations	remaining 5%

Any conformity issues at handover should be recorded in writing, with the statutory process applied to the final balance.

Checking a specific project

The permit is only the first filter. Before signing, check:

the developer’s land rights and planning history;
expiry of the permit challenge period;
the financial completion or refund guarantee;
the detailed specification, plans and permitted variations;
the contractual handover date and accepted delay events;
bank drawdowns, interim interest and any price indexation;
visible construction progress and the developer’s delivery record.

Permit statistics measure administrative flow, while FPI statements are an industry view. Neither replaces legal, technical and lending due diligence on the specific VEFA contract.