Archived analysis as of 29.07.2026. Scenarios, relative timeframes and references to the “latest release” below are anchored to that date. Original assumptions are preserved for comparison, not retrospectively rewritten. The September ECB decision and September prices and mortgages release provide the next snapshot.
Base case
The market is stabilising, but credit is slightly more expensive again. Confirmed data show no collapse: PACA remains slightly positive year on year, while quarterly momentum has weakened. For the French Riviera, the main risk has shifted from a shortage of transactions to financing costs.
| Indicator | Value | Date / base |
|---|---|---|
| PACA existing-home prices | +0.7% y/y | Q1 2026 |
| New mortgages in France | 3.21% | May 2026 |
| Mortgage origination | EUR 11.4bn | May 2026, -4.2% y/y |
| Home sales in France | 952k | 12 months to March 2026 |
The most likely scenario over 6-12 months is a sideways market: PACA around -1% to +2% year on year. Apartments look more resilient than houses, transactions stay near the current level, and mortgage rates are mostly in the 3.1-3.5% range. This is a scenario range, not a point price forecast.
Rates and credit
After the 25 bp increase in June, the ECB kept rates unchanged on 23 July 2026. The deposit facility rate is 2.25%, MRO is 2.40%, and MLF is 2.65%. The ECB made no commitment on the next move.
This is not a credit shock on the scale of 2022-2023, but the improvement in affordability has run out of room. According to Banque de France data, new housing loans excluding renegotiations cost 3.21% in May 2026, while monthly origination was EUR 11.4bn.
| France: new housing loans excluding renegotiations | May 2025 | March 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 3.11% | 3.22% | 3.22% | 3.21% | slightly tighter |
| Origination | EUR 11.9bn | EUR 12.6bn | EUR 12.0bn | EUR 11.4bn | -4.2% y/y |
ECB Accounts: what they actually say
On the review date, 29 July, the latest published Account was the 9 July release covering the 10–11 June meeting. The Account on the July pause was published on 27 August and is examined separately.
An ECB Account is the official anonymised summary of the discussion: the economic assessment, policy options and reasons for the decision. It is not a verbatim transcript or a promise about the future path of rates; it is usually published about four weeks later.
The June Account established four important points:
- all members supported a 25 bp increase in the three key ECB rates;
- the energy shock was already feeding into inflation, and risks had moved upward;
- the ECB did not promise either a sequence of increases or a one-off move;
- higher long rates and tighter lending standards should reduce credit demand.
For real estate, the implication is cautious: the Account does not promise a rapid fall in borrowing costs. The baseline signal is a pause and data dependence; the risk of renewed tightening remains. For the French Riviera, prime properties depend less on credit, while a broad PACA price correction is not confirmed.
PACA and DVF
According to INSEE/Notaires data for Q1 2026, apartments look more resilient than houses.
| PACA, existing homes | q/q | y/y |
|---|---|---|
| All properties | -0.4% | +0.7% |
| Apartments | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| Houses | -1.3% | +0.3% |
The following DVF table describes registered 2025 sales selected using a consistent method. Property counts refer to records: one sale may contain several properties. Use this snapshot as a general reference, then compare similar apartments by neighbourhood, floor area, view and condition. Selection details.
| Geography and property type | Change in DVF property records, 2025 vs 2024 | Change in median EUR/m², 2025 vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Alpes-Maritimes (06) + Var (83): apartments | +15.1% | +1.0% |
| Alpes-Maritimes (06) + Var (83): houses | +18.9% | -0.7% |
| Nice: apartments | +15.6% | +1.6% |
| Cannes: apartments | +6.7% | -0.2% |
Scenarios and observable triggers
This is not a point price forecast: the scenario changes only when observable conditions are met.
| Scenario | Conditions |
|---|---|
| Most likely: stabilisation | mortgage rates mostly 3.1-3.5%; transactions near the current level; PACA from -1% to +2% y/y |
| Downside: soft correction | mortgage rates above 3.5%; origination below EUR 10bn/month; PACA below 0% y/y for two quarters |
| Upside: growth returns | the ECB cuts rates again; mortgage rates below 3.0%; French sales above 1m/year |
What is a fact and what is a hypothesis
| Status | Takeaway |
|---|---|
| Fact | PACA is not yet in correction; apartments are more resilient than houses. |
| Fact | New borrowing costs are higher year on year; lending standards are slightly tighter. |
| Hypothesis | The mass market will correct before the prime segment. |
| Not yet tested | The full effect of the June shock on PACA transactions and prices. |
Checkpoints planned in the original analysis
- 08.09.2026: INSEE, Q2 2026 prices. The release is now published; review the new data.
- October 2026: DVF for H1 2026, Alpes-Maritimes (06) and Var (83).
- Monthly: Banque de France mortgage data.
- Every meeting: ECB rates and the energy backdrop.
This analytical note is not individual investment advice. For a specific property, micro-location, building quality, the legal pack, liquidity and deal terms remain decisive.
Which figures do you need for a decision today?
For a transaction, use the newer market releases and the purchase and ownership budget guide. Send the listing and known building costs: our discussion can separate confirmed payments from estimates and unknowns while retaining this July review as market history.
Sources
The report's main sources are ECB, INSEE, Banque de France and DGFiP/DVF. Indicator dates are shown above and in the PDF version of the report.
- INSEE / Notaires–Insee: Q1 2026 prices and sales
- ECB key interest rates
- ECB monetary policy decision, 11 June 2026
- ECB monetary policy decision, 23 July 2026
- Banque de France: housing loans, May 2026
- DGFiP / data.gouv.fr: DVF dataset
Further reading
- ECB’s August account: what mortgage buyers should check
- Mortgages and resale prices: PACA’s September 2026 update
- Alpes-Maritimes: apartments and houses through DVF data
