Base case
The market is stabilising, but credit is slightly more expensive again. Confirmed data show no collapse: PACA remains slightly positive year on year, while quarterly momentum has weakened. For the French Riviera, the main risk has shifted from a shortage of transactions to financing costs.
| Indicator | Value | Date / base |
|---|---|---|
| PACA existing-home prices | +0.7% y/y | Q1 2026 |
| New mortgages in France | 3.21% | May 2026 |
| Mortgage origination | EUR 11.4bn | May 2026, -4.2% y/y |
| Home sales in France | 952k | 12 months to March 2026 |
The most likely scenario over 6-12 months is a sideways market: PACA around -1% to +2% year on year. Apartments look more resilient than houses, transactions stay near the current level, and mortgage rates are mostly in the 3.1-3.5% range. This is a scenario range, not a point price forecast.
Rates and credit
After the 25 bp increase in June, the ECB kept rates unchanged on 23 July 2026. The deposit facility rate is 2.25%, MRO is 2.40%, and MLF is 2.65%. The ECB made no commitment on the next move.
This is not a credit shock on the scale of 2022-2023, but the improvement in affordability has run out of room. According to Banque de France data, new housing loans excluding renegotiations cost 3.21% in May 2026, while monthly origination was EUR 11.4bn.
| France: new housing loans excluding renegotiations | May 2025 | March 2026 | April 2026 | May 2026 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 3.11% | 3.22% | 3.22% | 3.21% | slightly tighter |
| Origination | EUR 11.9bn | EUR 12.6bn | EUR 12.0bn | EUR 11.4bn | -4.2% y/y |
ECB Accounts: what they actually say
The latest published Account is dated 09.07.2026 for the 10-11 June meeting; the Account covering the July pause is due on 27 August 2026.
An ECB Account is the official anonymised summary of the discussion: the economic assessment, policy options and reasons for the decision. It is not a verbatim transcript or a promise about the future path of rates; it is usually published about four weeks later.
The June Account established four important points:
- all members supported a 25 bp increase in the three key ECB rates;
- the energy shock was already feeding into inflation, and risks had moved upward;
- the ECB did not promise either a sequence of increases or a one-off move;
- higher long rates and tighter lending standards should reduce credit demand.
For real estate, the implication is cautious: the Account does not promise a rapid fall in borrowing costs. The baseline signal is a pause and data dependence; the risk of renewed tightening remains. For the French Riviera, prime properties depend less on credit, while a broad PACA price correction is not confirmed.
PACA and DVF
According to INSEE/Notaires data for Q1 2026, apartments look more resilient than houses.
| PACA, existing homes | q/q | y/y |
|---|---|---|
| All properties | -0.4% | +0.7% |
| Apartments | +0.4% | +1.1% |
| Houses | -1.3% | +0.3% |
The local DVF snapshot uses complete 2025 data. Filter: Vente, 500-25,000 EUR/m²; ultra-prime excluded. "DVF property records" are filtered rows, not an exact transaction count: one mutation can include several properties.
| Geography and property type | Change in DVF property records, 2025 vs 2024 | Change in median EUR/m², 2025 vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Alpes-Maritimes (06) + Var (83): apartments | +15.1% | +1.0% |
| Alpes-Maritimes (06) + Var (83): houses | +18.9% | -0.7% |
| Nice: apartments | +15.6% | +1.6% |
| Cannes: apartments | +6.7% | -0.2% |
Scenarios and observable triggers
This is not a point price forecast: the scenario changes only when observable conditions are met.
| Scenario | Conditions |
|---|---|
| Most likely: stabilisation | mortgage rates mostly 3.1-3.5%; transactions near the current level; PACA from -1% to +2% y/y |
| Downside: soft correction | mortgage rates above 3.5%; origination below EUR 10bn/month; PACA below 0% y/y for two quarters |
| Upside: growth returns | the ECB cuts rates again; mortgage rates below 3.0%; French sales above 1m/year |
What is a fact and what is a hypothesis
| Status | Takeaway |
|---|---|
| Fact | PACA is not yet in correction; apartments are more resilient than houses. |
| Fact | New borrowing costs are higher year on year; lending standards are slightly tighter. |
| Hypothesis | The mass market will correct before the prime segment. |
| Not yet tested | The full effect of the June shock on PACA transactions and prices. |
Next checkpoints
- 08.09.2026: INSEE, Q2 2026 prices.
- October 2026: DVF for H1 2026, Alpes-Maritimes (06) and Var (83).
- Monthly: Banque de France mortgage data.
- Every meeting: ECB rates and the energy backdrop.
This analytical note is not individual investment advice. For a specific property, micro-location, building quality, the legal pack, liquidity and deal terms remain decisive.
Sources
The report's main sources are ECB, INSEE, Banque de France and DGFiP/DVF. Indicator dates are shown above and in the PDF version of the report.