Two indicators, different directions
The SDES release of 28 August covers July 2026. France authorised 29,577 homes, down 2.5% from June after seasonal and working-day adjustment. Estimated starts reached 27,677, up 8.9%. These are different project stages: they cannot be added together or treated as apartment sales.
Over August 2025–July 2026, 370,673 homes were authorised. SDES reports that this total was 9.5% below the average for the preceding five years. One positive monthly movement in starts therefore does not establish a return to earlier supply levels.
The separate PACA picture
The regional DREAL bulletin checked for this article covers the second quarter. Its rolling year ends in June, not July. It provides regional context, not a July PACA observation.
| PACA, July 2025–June 2026 | Homes | Change against the preceding 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| Authorised | 26,697 | +10.5% |
| Started | 20,125 | +5.6% |
Source: DREAL PACA / SDES, Sitadel estimates by actual event date. The regional bulletin reports an annual decline of around 5% in starts for collective housing and residences, against growth of around 35% for individual housing. The latter increase comes from a low level relative to the longer observation period.
Limitation: this article does not establish PACA’s monthly July value. France’s −2.5% and +8.9% changes cannot be assigned to the region, department or an individual town.
Our earlier new-build review reported 26,660 authorised homes over June 2025–May 2026, up 11.5% year on year. In the next rolling period, the total is nearly unchanged at 26,697, while annual growth eases to 10.5%. This compares two published releases with overlapping twelve-month periods: it shows a stable total rather than the number of new permits issued in June.
Where statistical noise enters
A permit can be amended, cancelled or implemented later. Starts also rely on administrative information received with delays. SDES notes that Sitadel3 replaced Sitadel2 from March 2026 and that the figures were revised.
Our practical reading is that permits and actual construction can recover at different speeds. A trend assessment needs successive observations with matching geography, periods and housing types. Timing alone is insufficient to attribute the whole movement to a tax reform.
Applying this to a VEFA purchase
VEFA is a purchase before construction is complete. Regional indicators should be supplemented by evidence about the specific development:
- the building permit and the position regarding challenge periods;
- the developer’s land rights and financial completion guarantee;
- the contractual handover date, permitted delays and payment schedule;
- the specification, plans, areas and included finishes;
- the actual construction stage and regular project reports.
A developer can deliver successfully in a weak market, while another can face delays during a statistical recovery. Our VEFA risk guide develops these project checks.
The indicators cover different periods and may be revised. They do not guarantee delivery, price or a developer’s financial resilience.
Sources and verification date
Checked on 21 September 2026. Observation periods and limitations are identified in the article.
