A new decision after the July pause
On 10 September 2026, the ECB increased its three policy rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage points. From 16 September the deposit rate is 2.50%, main refinancing 2.65% and marginal lending 2.90%.
This supersedes the pause discussed in the August account. September’s baseline projects inflation of 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028. These are forecasts, not a commitment or a property-price prediction.
Mortgage offers follow their own process
Banks assess funding costs, competition, loan maturity, deposit and borrower circumstances. A new French mortgage need not move by precisely a quarter point on the same day. Published lending averages describe completed lending rather than a personal offer available now.
The ECB decision does not itself change the agreed interest rate on an existing fixed-rate mortgage. For a new purchase, check that the illustration remains current and establish the offer’s validity period.
Test three versions of the budget
Ask the lender for the payment and total cost on a consistent loan amount and term. Then test a higher rate and a smaller loan. These are affordability scenarios, not predictions of future ECB decisions.
Include insurance, acquisition expenses, initial works and a cash reserve. Compare TAEG, the annual percentage rate of charge, on a like-for-like cost basis.
What different rates mean for monthly payments
Consider a €300,000 loan over 20 years with equal monthly payments. Only the interest rate changes; insurance and fees are excluded.
| Scenario rate | Monthly payment |
|---|---|
| 3.30% | €1,709 |
| 3.55% | €1,748 |
| 3.80% | €1,786 |
IMMO BTC calculation using the amortising-loan formula, rounded to the euro. These are hypothetical scenarios, not bank offers. A 0.25-percentage-point increase adds about €39 a month in this example. Repeat the calculation using your actual amount, term and total financing cost.
Align the financing condition with reality
Before signing the preliminary sale agreement, review the condition suspensive with the notary: amount, maturity, maximum rate and application deadlines. The wording should reflect the financing actually being sought. A verbal indication or preliminary assessment is not an issued loan.
Cash buyers do not face a direct mortgage-payment change. Credit availability may nevertheless affect the pool of purchasers at resale. It is one part of assessing a particular property’s liquidity, not evidence of a uniform price direction across PACA.
Sources and verification date
Checked on 21 September 2026. Observation periods and limitations are identified in the article.
