IMMO BTC — méthode de l’étude L3, 21 septembre 2026

1. Périmètre
Ventes ordinaires d’appartements à Nice, 2016–2025. Groupe principal : à 500 m à vol d’oiseau des six nouveaux arrêts ouverts le 13 novembre 2019, de Méridia à Saint-Isidore (La Plaine, Les Arboras/Université, Eco-Parc, Stade). Coordonnées moyennes des quais portant le même nom dans le GTFS Lignes d’Azur de septembre 2026 ; noms actuels. Le tronçon partagé près de l’aéroport, ouvert auparavant, et Lingostière sont exclus. La distance définit un périmètre reproductible, pas un temps de marche.

2. Sources et sélection
DGFiP / Etalab geo-DVF. Pour 2016–2020 : copie de la publication officielle d’avril 2021 conservée par OpenDataArchives. Pour 2021–2025 : publication courante files.data.gouv.fr téléchargée le 21 septembre 2026. Les versions peuvent différer par les corrections tardives. Ventes ordinaires Vente, une disposition et une commune ; dédoublonnage strict puis exactement une ligne Appartement. Types vides et Dépendance admis ; maisons, locaux commerciaux et mutations avec plusieurs lignes résidentielles exclus. Prix et surface_reelle_bati positifs ; ratio de 500 à 25 000 EUR/m². Le prix total peut inclure un stationnement ou d’autres locaux, sans ventilation de leur valeur. Le géocodage Etalab peut représenter la parcelle plutôt que l’entrée de l’immeuble.

3. Tableau descriptif
Médiane des ratios individuels prix total/surface, arrondie à l’euro. Effectifs : ventes retenues avec coordonnées. La médiane de Nice inclut le groupe proche. Prix nominaux, sans correction de l’inflation, de l’état, de la vue ou des travaux. Les variations 2018–2025 citées dans l’article utilisent les médianes arrondies et sont présentées comme approximatives.

4. Modèle d’évolution relative
Variable expliquée : logarithme naturel du prix au m². Variables : logarithme de la surface et son carré, catégories de pièces, années, appartenance au groupe proche, effets fixes de cellules spatiales de 500 × 500 m et interactions groupe proche/année. Référence : 2018. Origine de la grille : 7,1° E et 43,6° N ; distances approchées avec 111 320 m par degré de latitude et 111 320 × cos(43,7°) par degré de longitude.
Appartements de 15–200 m², de 1 à 6 pièces. Les cellules doivent présenter des ventes en 2016–2018 et en 2020–2025. Groupe de comparaison principal : à plus de 1 000 m des six arrêts ; l’espace entre le rayon proche et 1 000 m est écarté. L’année 2019 est estimée séparément, l’ouverture ayant eu lieu en novembre.
Le modèle corrige les caractéristiques observées et les différences spatiales permanentes. Évolution = 100 × (exp(coefficient d’interaction) − 1), relativement à l’écart des groupes en 2018. Il s’agit d’une évolution relative, pas d’un écart de niveau de prix ni de points de pourcentage.

5. Incertitude et sensibilité
Erreurs regroupées par cellule spatiale ; intervalle approximatif à 95 % avec coefficient 1,96 et correction du nombre de groupes et de paramètres. Modèle principal : 71 083 observations, 177 groupes ; l’échantillon proche est beaucoup plus petit. Les intervalles restent approximatifs, notamment avec peu de secteurs proches des arrêts.
Tests : rayons de 400 et 600 m, groupe local de comparaison à 1–2 km. Estimations 2025 : −2,35 % (500 m, ville), +3,43 % (500 m, local), −2,47 % (400 m, ville), −1,32 % (600 m, ville).
Les tendances différaient déjà avant l’ouverture : coefficient relatif 2016/2018 de +10,67 % dans le modèle principal. L’hypothèse de tendances préalables parallèles n’est pas confirmée. Anticipations, autres constructions, composition du parc et géocodage peuvent intervenir. Le modèle n’identifie pas un effet causal propre au tramway. L’absence de prime stable dans ces calculs ne démontre pas l’absence d’utilité du transport ou d’effet à une adresse précise.

6. Diffusion
Seuls les agrégats, les coordonnées publiques des arrêts et le schéma des rayons sont publiés. Aucune adresse ni vente individuelle. Résultats détaillés et empreintes des sources ci-dessous.

Sources / Источники:
https://www.data.gouv.fr/datasets/demandes-de-valeurs-foncieres
https://files.data.gouv.fr/geo-dvf/latest/csv/
https://files.opendatarchives.fr/cadastre.data.gouv.fr/data/etalab-dvf/2021-04/csv/
https://transport.data.gouv.fr/resources/83178
DGFiP / Etalab — Licence Ouverte 2.0

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          "cluster_se": 0.02514088296000973
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        {
          "year": 2021,
          "relative_change_pct": -0.04,
          "ci95_low": -4.84,
          "ci95_high": 5.01,
          "log_coefficient": -0.00037033563344579523,
          "cluster_se": 0.02514758168362478
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        {
          "year": 2022,
          "relative_change_pct": 0.47,
          "ci95_low": -4.91,
          "ci95_high": 6.15,
          "log_coefficient": 0.004651643423380647,
          "cluster_se": 0.02805442685916511
        },
        {
          "year": 2023,
          "relative_change_pct": 4.36,
          "ci95_low": -1.46,
          "ci95_high": 10.53,
          "log_coefficient": 0.04270814365253617,
          "cluster_se": 0.029283082413102193
        },
        {
          "year": 2024,
          "relative_change_pct": -3.23,
          "ci95_low": -7.69,
          "ci95_high": 1.46,
          "log_coefficient": -0.03278150871577734,
          "cluster_se": 0.024126385589101115
        },
        {
          "year": 2025,
          "relative_change_pct": -1.32,
          "ci95_low": -7.28,
          "ci95_high": 5.04,
          "log_coefficient": -0.013240419504087997,
          "cluster_se": 0.0318260684395726
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "hashes": [
    {
      "year": 2016,
      "sha256": "c9c4beb1f418f765dd9d4129b60ad8d810036fb4ea0c1d7bb1ffbc1ec6158c1f"
    },
    {
      "year": 2017,
      "sha256": "afa6f339da46459959989f7a078fcbf1c8ae011e024830f46966f04e5e21b497"
    },
    {
      "year": 2018,
      "sha256": "e21fcc1828dbb1b3847360fd141a4e5b086991a10b7d0fb53f14e42329d9e229"
    },
    {
      "year": 2019,
      "sha256": "fb916905a217a6c5cc4185eb096838e298d7689ca57c2014961c82d5a4f2a92c"
    },
    {
      "year": 2020,
      "sha256": "456b510e585056f80f8140e241e1eeb35dea9cf2ef4e46fe0df4e1801b15797d"
    },
    {
      "year": 2021,
      "sha256": "d39d9f68e3754929a08b75a8d0fc1a1690322044f837d19ef79e5e935be2260a"
    },
    {
      "year": 2022,
      "sha256": "81f87a3e69fb4c557b1abbc542ad26dadaa44ecc0084775659bb49594a3848ad"
    },
    {
      "year": 2023,
      "sha256": "5ba250e332ef0e06d4a4e9e12e978e808a005e1506d4df6697be41ace1d1a658"
    },
    {
      "year": 2024,
      "sha256": "531cff97a02ed5a80b6c0b5233ad5e0c394a7537b6854c91f0471fbc7a0d31f7"
    },
    {
      "year": 2025,
      "sha256": "4bd72468e8ca00ff99e5774730faf2cc9339c94a19b8c6db8cb95255370d07f0"
    }
  ],
  "method": "Ordinary single-apartment sales. Annual descriptive medians plus log EUR/m2 regression with log area, squared log area, room-count effects, year effects, 500m spatial cell effects and near-station/year interactions (2018 reference). Models restrict area 15–200 m2 and 1–6 rooms; cells must exist before and after opening. Control properties >1000m from the six new stops; local control <=2000m. Cluster-robust approximate 95% intervals by spatial cell. Observational association, not isolated causal effect."
}

Coordonnées des arrêts : Lignes d’Azur, Licence Ouverte 2.0. Vérifié le 21.09.2026.
https://transport.data.gouv.fr/datasets/donnees-statiques-et-dynamiques-du-reseau-de-transport-lignes-dazur